Country Reports
2018
February 6, 2018
Indonesia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper focuses on various challenges and opportunities related to reaping Indonesia’s demographic dividend. Demographic trends can impact growth through various channels. These include the size of the labor force, productivity, and capital formation. Indonesia’s growth is set to have a sizeable tailwind from demographic trends. The paper suggests that Indonesia should seize the window of opportunity to reap the demographic dividend, as aging is projected to start kicking in less than 15 years. In the long-term, Indonesia can grow old before becoming rich. The rapid speed of aging implies that Indonesia, similar to many Asian economies, may face the prospect of becoming old before becoming rich. Given Indonesia’s favorable demographic trends, policies should focus first on maximizing the demographic dividend. Reaping the demographic dividend requires appropriate policies to raise productivity and create enough quality jobs for the growing working-age population. Investing in human capital early on, including education and health care, is essential to improve the productivity of the workforce and increase the size of the demographic dividend.
February 5, 2018
Republic of Kosovo: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper on Kosovo discusses various challenges and opportunities in the public infrastructure domain. Given the very low initial stocks, largely due to the sharp depletion of capital stock during the conflicts in the 1990s, higher investment rates are needed. The resources available from international development partners, including the European Union (EU), the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, are a unique opportunity to leverage and accelerate the implementation of priority projects. Strengthening Kosovo’s investment framework is key to achieving this objective. Kosovo faces significant public infrastructure gaps, which constrain private sector development. Scaling-up public investment will raise gross domestic product growth potential and accelerate income convergence toward the EU average level. The priority project list has helped the authorities to prioritize plans and facilitate the discussions and negotiations with donors and International Financial Institutions (IFI). However, implementation so far has been modest, despite the new investment clause of the fiscal rule exempting IFI-financed projects from the deficit ceiling.
February 4, 2018
Republic of Kosovo: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Kosovo
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Kosovo has made significant progress since the 2015 Article IV consultation in ensuring fiscal discipline and strengthening the financial sector. The fiscal deficit has been kept well below the 2 percent of GDP fiscal rule ceiling, government bank balances are now above the minimum level of 4.5 percent of GDP, and public debt remains low. Banks remain healthy and credit growth has increased. Notwithstanding, important structural challenges remain. Although medium-term growth is now projected at about 4 percent, more and better growth is needed to accelerate income convergence with the European Union and reduce inequality. The fiscal deficit is expected to remain within the fiscal rule while accelerating the investment financed by international financial institutions.
January 31, 2018
Uruguay: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uruguay
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the fiscal adjustment in Uruguay is on track. Fiscal policy has been countercyclical in 2017, with higher income tax receipts partly offset by rising pension and health care costs. The overall deficit is estimated to decline to 3.3 percent of GDP, and the government continues to be able to access international financial markets on favorable terms, including through global nominal-peso bonds. Financial flows have remained volatile, and local and nonresident investor interest in the peso has been strong overall. The current account balance has been improving and is now in surplus, estimated to approach 2 percent of GDP in 2017.
January 31, 2018
Uruguay: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper investigates the impact of exchange rate movements on private consumption in Uruguay. Uruguay is a highly dollarized economy, which makes the relationship between exchange rate movements and private consumption particularly complex. The paper shows that a large share of Uruguayan households is liquidity constrained, which allows the transitory real income shocks brought about by exchange rate pass-through to have a significant impact on consumption. Moreover, exchange rate pass-through is highly heterogenous, with relative prices of durables increasing (decreasing) following a depreciation (appreciation). This creates incentives for households to engage in intertemporal substitution where they buy durables when they are relatively cheaper. Data from Input–Output tables show that Uruguay produces a nontrivial amount of the tradable, durable goods it consumes, opening the door to contractionary depreciations. The results offer a potential explanation for the often noted ‘excess volatility of consumption’ in emerging markets for the case of Uruguay.
January 29, 2018
Malta: Selected Issues
Description: This paper discusses infrastructure gaps vis-à-vis other EU countries that are most striking in road and energy networks, both in quality and quantity. This is reflected in an unparalleled gap in the approximated public capital stock. Long-term GDP benefits from increasing public investment are estimated to be substantial, ranging between 5¼ and 18¼ percent in net present value over 30 years. Malta’s authorities have started to tackle these challenges by upgrading and diversifying the energy system and by launching a comprehensive transport strategy. These efforts go in the right direction and should be implemented in a budget-neutral manner to support a further decline in the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Malta’s fiscal position has improved considerably in recent years, yet further buildup of fiscal buffers is needed against possible adverse macroeconomic conditions. Therefore, reallocating public spending from current to capital expenditure, as well as making public investment more efficient would help boosting infrastructure.
January 29, 2018
Malta: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Malta’s economic growth remains one of the strongest in Europe, owing to favorable economic conditions and sound policies, which advanced structural reforms and supported the strengthening of private and public balance sheets. Output is estimated to have expanded by 6.8 percent in 2017, accompanied by dynamic job creation, which brought unemployment to a record low. Strong inflows of foreign workers and rising labor force participation kept wage pressures contained in most sectors, thus contributing to low inflation despite a positive output gap. The outlook is favorable, with growth decelerating gradually and converging to about 3 percent over the medium term.
January 26, 2018
Kuwait: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kuwait
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that non-oil growth in Kuwait has picked up modestly over the past two years, and inflation has moderated. After coming to a standstill in 2015, real non-hydrocarbon growth has recovered and is set to reach 2.5 percent in 2018, driven by improved confidence. Notwithstanding the impact of higher energy and water prices, inflation is on track to reach a multiyear low of 1.75 percent in 2017, owing to a decline in housing rents and favorable food price developments. The government’s underlying fiscal position has improved on the back of spending restraint, but financing needs have remained large.
January 26, 2018
Kuwait: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper on Kuwait focuses on fiscal expenditures with the aim of identifying potential areas for reform. While the authorities’ planned non-oil revenue measures are welcome, these alone will not reduce the authorities’ fiscal deficit sufficiently, highlighting the importance of expenditure reforms. This paper draws from previous episodes of adjustment in Kuwait and conducts some benchmarking—comparing Kuwait’s level of fiscal spending in various areas to that of peers—to identify areas for streamlining and efficiency improvement. Kuwait needs to implement fiscal consolidation to adjust to durably lower oil prices. The collapse in oil prices has resulted in substantial deterioration of both external and fiscal positions, leading to large fiscal financing needs. In order to preserve the fiscal buffers and provide equitable consumption of future generations, Kuwait needs to consolidate its fiscal position. While the planned tax reforms and repricing of government services are steps in the right direction, fiscal consolidation also needs to rely heavily on streamlining expenditures.
January 24, 2018
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
Description: This IMF Staff Report for 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Ethiopia has recorded annual average GDP growth of about ten percent in the last decade, driven by public investments in agriculture and infrastructure. The poverty rate has fallen from 44 percent in 2000 to 23.5 percent in 2015/16. In 2016/17 GDP growth is estimated at 9 percent, as agriculture rebounded from severe drought conditions in 2015/16. Industrial activity expanded, with continued investments in infrastructure and manufacturing. The current account deficit declined in 2016/17 to 8.2 percent of GDP. Over the medium term, growth is expected to remain about 8 percent, supported by sustained expansion in exports and investment.