Country Reports
2018
July 19, 2018
Euro Area Policies: Financial System Stability Assessment
Description: Overall the resilience of large euro area banks has improved, but important vulnerabilities remain. Capital buffers are in aggregate sizeable relative to immediate threats, but some banks are especially vulnerable to credit risk and others to market risks, including a substantial rise in risk premia. The banking system as a whole has ample liquidity, against a backdrop of ECB support. At a structural level, low profitability is found in many banks across all business models, despite improving conjunctural conditions. The interconnectedness analysis shows that strong buffers are effective in dampening both vulnerabilities and onward transmission. Risks to financial stability relate mainly to tighter financial conditions, weaker growth, and policy and geopolitical uncertainties. The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU (Brexit) could potentially disrupt financial market and services, and thus the wider economy. Also, policy reversals could hurt debt sustainability and test the cohesion of policy making in the union.
July 19, 2018
Euro Area Policies: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Systemic Risk Analysis
Description: This technical note consists of five chapters focusing on various aspects of systemic risk analysis across the euro area financial system. The chapters cover bank profitability, balance sheet- and market-based interconnected analysis, contingent claims analysis, and a brief discussion of data gaps in the nonbank, non-insurance (NBNI) financial sector. The ongoing economic recovery will support euro area bank profitability in general, but it is unlikely to resolve the structural challenges faced by the least profitable banks despite some recent improvements. This is important because persistently weak bank profitability is a systemic financial stability concern. Empirical analysis of 109 major euro area banks over 2007–2016 reveals that real GDP growth and the NPL ratio are the most reliable determinants of profitability, after accounting for other factors. Although higher growth would raise profits, a large swath of banks with the weakest profitability would most likely continue to struggle even with a robust recovery. Therefore, banks should take advantage of the current upswing by resolutely addressing their NPL stocks—such a strategy holds the most promise for weak banks’ profitability prospects.
July 19, 2018
Euro Area Policies: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Bank Resolution and Crisis Management
Description: The euro area (EA) bank resolution and crisis management arrangements have been strengthened considerably over recent years, but work remains to complete and unify the regime. The adoption of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) and the Single Resolution Mechanism Regulation (SRMR), and the establishment of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) and the Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM) provide a foundation to deal with problem banks. The authorities remain committed to completing the banking union through the establishment of a backstop for the Single Resolution Fund (SRF) and a European deposit insurance scheme (EDIS) and other measures, many of which are in line with recommendations in this report.
July 19, 2018
Euro Area Policies: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Detailed Assessment of Observance of Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision
Description: The SSM (SSM) has made a solid start. Set up a little over three years ago, the SSM has developed into a coherent banking supervision mechanism operating across the 19 Euro Area Member States. Banking supervision at the European Central Bank (ECB) is underpinned by a clear mandate and independence from government or industry interference in individual supervisory decisions. Its well-defined supervisory methodology and processes—complemented by committed staff—have laid the foundations for more forward-looking, pre-emptive, and evenhanded supervision. This is a noteworthy achievement for the Euro Area.
July 19, 2018
Euro Area Policies: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Systemic Liquidity Management
Description: The flexibility shown by the ECB/Eurosystem in adapting its framework, as required by circumstances, has helped improve funding and liquidity conditions. Compared to the situation pre-crisis, the ECB/Eurosystem has provided liquidity against a broader range of collateral and for as long as four years in terms of maturity; extended liquidity in foreign currency; conducted outright purchases of public and private sector assets (now tapering off); and reduced interest rates into negative territory. In these arrangements, policy is directed from the center, but is implemented mostly by the National Central Banks (NCBs); risks are largely shared. Market participants are complimentary about the role the ECB/Eurosystem has played in backstopping the financial system and its forward guidance on monetary policy.
July 19, 2018
Euro Area Policies: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Insurance, Investment Firm, and Macroprudential Oversight
Description: While national authorities are still largely responsible for supervising the nonbank sector and applying the macroprudential framework, European Union (EU)-level organizations’ supervisory role is growing. Further convergence and strengthening of supervision of insurers and investment firms is consistent with the goals of an EU single market and financial stability. The macroprudential framework functions well but could be simplified and expanded to cover aspects of the nonbank sector.
July 16, 2018
Guyana: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: Economic growth slowed down, but became more broad-based. In 2017, real GDP growth was 2.1 percent, with the non-mining GDP rebounding from its contraction in 2016. The external balance turned negative due to weaker than expected export growth and higher oil prices. Inflation remains relatively low, and the monetary stance accommodative. Oil production is expected to commence in 2020, and additional oil discoveries have significantly improved the medium- and long-term outlook.
July 16, 2018
Canada: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press-Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Canada
Description: The economy has continued to perform well, but trade tensions, uncertainty about the outcome of NAFTA negotiations and the impact of the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Canada’s competitiveness are casting a shadow over the outlook.
July 13, 2018
Argentina: Request for Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: Despite a difficult economic context, President Macri’s administration, over the past two and a half years, has taken bold steps to eliminate a wide range of distortions in the economy. Efforts were also made to strengthen institutions (including the complete reconstruction of the statistics agency, in an effort to restore credibility to Argentine data), as well as an assertive effort to tackle corruption. Despite these efforts, a gradual approach to fiscal consolidation, combined with a tightening of global financial conditions, a poor harvest, and the introduction of a tax on nonresident holdings of short-term central bank paper, generated significant anxiety among market participants. Starting in mid-April, Argentina came under abrupt balance of payments pressures as both domestic and foreign investors decided to liquidate their position in onshore peso assets. To stem the outflows, the authorities significantly increased short-term interest rates, tightened fiscal policy, and sold foreign exchange. Shortly after taking these steps the government announced its intention to approach the IMF for an exceptional access Stand-By Arrangement.