Country Reports
2019
January 10, 2019
Vietnam: Technical Assistance Report-Report on Residential Property Price Statistics Capacity Development Mission
Description: A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted during July 9–13, 2018 to assist the General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO) with the development of a residential property price index (RPPI). This was the first mission conducted to Vietnam under the auspices of the multi-annual STA Data for Decisions (D4D) trust fund. The main objective of TA provided to Vietnam under the D4D will be to assist the GSO to develop an RPPI. The GSO recently launched two initiatives to collect potential source data for the RPPI since taxation data are unreliable in respect of reported transaction prices, and the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) does not collect loan level mortgage data.
January 8, 2019
Ukraine: Request for Stand-By Arrangement and Cancellation of Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
Description: The Ukrainian authorities have been able to restore macro-economic stability and growth following the severe economic crisis of 2014–15. However, efforts to create a more dynamic, open, and competitive economy have fallen short of expectations, and the economy still faces important challenges. Investment, particularly foreign direct investment, is held back by a difficult business environment, while large numbers of worker seek job opportunities abroad as economic growth is too low for incomes to noticeably close the gap with regional peers. Reserves have recovered, but remain relatively low, while the economy is still vulnerable to shocks.
January 7, 2019
Seychelles: Second Review Under the policy coordination Instrument and Request for Modification of Targets-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: Economic developments since the completion of the first review under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) in June 2018 have been broadly in line with expectations. The program is largely on track. Staff received renewed assurance from President Faure that the large infrastructure projects announced in his State of the Nation Address (SONA) in March 2018 would be implemented within the fiscal targets under the PCI.
January 3, 2019
Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Common Policies of Member Countries, and Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
Description: The regional strategy has helped to avert an immediate crisis but continues to face headwinds: two countries have yet to enter financing arrangements with the Fund: regional reserves have underperformed despite higher-than-projected oil prices; the projected recovery of non-oil growth has still to materialize; and the security, social, and political context remains challenging. Consistent with the policy assurances it had provided, the BEAC has taken corrective actions, including an increase in its policy rate, to address the NFA underperformance and has made substantial progress toward finalizing by end-year the modernization of the monetary policy operational framework and the drafting of new foreign exchange regulations. A follow-up letter of support provides updated policy assurances on the NFA path. The medium-term outlook continues to see a gradual improvement in the economic and financial situation but is subject to substantial downside risks, including further delays in the approval of financial arrangements with Congo and Equatorial Guinea, lower oil prices, and tighter global financial conditions. The region continues to face daunting challenges to diversify its economy, with a poor business environment and high perception of corruption.
January 3, 2019
Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper looks at some Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) specific regional dimensions of a possible strategy to enhance governance, which would support specific reforms in this area at the country level. The paper describes the specific dimensions of governance covered in the note. The paper also analyzes governance and corruption in the areas of public financial management, anti-money laundering, and the link between the oil sector and public resources. The CEMAC regional institutions will have to play a central role to lead progress in these areas, and support member countries’ own efforts. Due to such actions result in giving a coherent framework to actions conducted at the country level, the synergic dimension can spur a virtuous circle, key to earn the benefit of an economic and monetary union. The success of the regional strategy that CEMAC member countries and regional institutions are implementing to exit the severe crisis they are facing depends critically on creating the conditions for laying the ground for a diversified economy, within a well-functioning regional market and an environment that provides opportunities for all and where public resources are geared to most productive use.
2018
December 28, 2018
Central African Republic: 2018 Article IV Consultation, Fifth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Financing Assurances Review
Description: The Central African Republic (C.A.R.) is a fragile state with an unstable security environment and widespread poverty. Macroeconomic conditions have stabilized following the 2013 crisis: growth has resumed, inflation has declined, domestic revenues have recovered, and debt ratios have decreased. The government’s economic strategy is supported by an arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF)—launched in July 2016—with total access of SDR 133.68 million (120 percent of quota). Program performance has been satisfactory. All end-June 2018 quantitative and continuous performance criteria were met. Discussions focused on the 2019 budget, policy responses to a higher global oil price, and reforms to improve public financial management and governance. The program is supported by union-level efforts to maintain an appropriate monetary policy stance, build up regional reserves, and promote financial sector stability.
December 27, 2018
Cameroon: Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cameroon
Description: President Biya was re-elected as President of Cameroon on October 7 by a large margin, amidst some violence in anglophone regions. Growth is projected to gradually increase from 3.5 percent in 2017 to 3.8 percent in 2018, driven by construction activity ahead of the Africa Cup of Nations (CAN) and large infrastructure projects. Fiscal consolidation as of end-June was in line with program objectives, but faces significant headwinds in the second half of the year owing to accelerating capital spending and revenue shortfalls. The goods trade balance worsened significantly in H1 and private capital outflows increased, contributing to a slower-than-anticipated buildup of external buffers. The medium-term outlook remains positive with growth expected to increase to 4.4 percent in 2019 and reach 5 percent in the medium-term. Risks from heightened global uncertainty, insufficient adjustment at the regional level, and continued insecurity in the anglophone regions are increasing.
December 21, 2018
Bolivia: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: After years of impressive growth and poverty reduction, Bolivia is facing a more challenging period. Accommodative fiscal and monetary policies combined with lower gas and minerals prices have contributed to continued large twin deficits, foreign reserve losses, and a sharp increase in public debt. External competitiveness has been negatively affected by the appreciating US dollar, high wage growth, and domestic policies that have hindered private sector investment. A definitive change in the policy stance is warranted to restore external balance, minimize a further buildup in vulnerabilities, and promote broad based growth.
December 20, 2018
Suriname: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues explores ways for strengthening the current fiscal framework in Suriname and considers options for a new fiscal anchor. The paper provides an overview of mineral natural resources and their importance for the budget. It also lays out the current framework for fiscal planning and budget execution in Suriname and discusses the analytical underpinnings of modernizing it to make it more robust. The paper also presents estimates of long-term sustainability benchmarks based on the IMF’s policy toolkit for resource-rich developing countries. Suriname’s fiscal framework can be strengthened through a fiscal anchor rooted in the non-resource primary balance. Given the size of fiscal adjustment required to bring the non-resource primary balance in line with the long-term sustainability benchmark, a substantial transition period is needed to implement it. The IMF Staff’s adjustment scenario—designed to put public debt on the downward path—closes the current gap by less than half, implying that adjustment would need to continue beyond the 5-year horizon.
December 20, 2018
Suriname: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
Description: Suriname is recovering from the deep recession of 2015-16. Growth has turned positive, inflation has reduced to single digits, real interest rates have turned positive, and the external position has on balance strengthened. Nonetheless, the economy remains heavily dependent on the mineral sector, and faces fiscal, monetary, and banking sector vulnerabilities.