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Fiscal Sustainability

Virtual : Projecting Public Debt and Fiscal Adjustment Paths Part II (FS)

Invitation

Session No.: JV 22.52V

Location: Vienna, Austria

Date: March 21-25, 2022 (1 week)

Primary Language: English

Interpretation Language: Russian

    Target Audience

    Workshop for countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia

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    Qualifications

    Participants will either need to have joined the first workshop in March 2021 and / or successfully completed the new online course ""Projecting Public Debt: The Public Debt Dynamics Tool (registration by October 13 OL 21.21). Prior to the workshop participants from one country are asked to prepare a preliminary analysis.

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    Course Description

    Building on a first workshop in March 2021 and the new online course "Projecting Public Debt: The Public Debt Dynamics Tool (registration by October 13 here), the overall objective of this follow-up workshop for countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia as well as Mongolia is to analyze how public debt is expected to change over time, perform scenario analyses, and assess fiscal adjustment paths to achieve a user-defined public debt target. During this workshop, participants are expected to apply the knowledge to their own countries, prepare group presentations and debt reports, and compare developments across the region: 

    • Analyze public debt dynamics for their own country (i.e., the evolution of public debt over time) under a baseline and alternative scenarios;
    • Identify the main drivers of public debt changes;
    • Conduct stress tests to public debt dynamics, including using fan charts;
    • Compute and assess fiscal adjustment measures to achieve a user-defined public debt target;
    • Prepare debt reports, and
    • Compare countries in the region and discuss debt-related issues.
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    Course Objectives

    Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:

    • Describe why fiscal sustainability is central to macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth.
    • Apply effective concepts, definitions, and techniques for analyzing fiscal sustainability.
    • Identify fiscal vulnerabilities, distinguishing between near-term and long-term risks.
    • Analyze crises and fiscal adjustment cases.
    • Differentiate between various debt sustainability analysis (DSA) frameworks.
    • Prepare a brief DSA for either a country with access to financial markets or a low-income country.
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