The Potential of Foreign Aid as Insurance

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Abstract: This paper quantifies the potential of foreign aid as an insurance mechanism against macroeconomic shocks. Within a dynamic model of aid flows between two endowment economies, we show that at least three-fourths of the large welfare costs of macroeconomic fluctuations in poor countries could be alleviated by a simple reallocation of aid flows across time. In developing countries subject to persistent macroeconomic shocks, the resulting welfare improvement is of first-order magnitude. [JEL F35, E32, E60]