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Second Annual IMF Research Conference (November 29–30, 2001)

IMF Staff Papers

Volume 49, Special Issue 2002

The second Annual Research Conference of the International Monetary Fund took place in Washington, DC, on November 29 and 30, 2001. Speakers included scholars from universities and other research institutions as well as young researchers in the Fund. This year's conference had a focus on the economic consequences of large devaluations and currency crises, stabilization policies in emerging markets, and the political economy of economic reforms and IMF programs. The Mundell-Fleming lecture was delivered by the Fund's Chief Economist, Ken Rogoff (1,153kb pdf file), in honor of one of the pre-eminent scholars of modern international finance, Rudi Dornbusch, whose influential "overshooting model" of the exchange rate was published 25 years ago.

A Special Issue of the IMF Staff Papers, published in 2002, contains some papers presented at this conference (articles provided below in PDF format).

Final Program

Thursday, November 29:
The Consequences of Large Devaluations and Currency Crises

9:00 a.m. Registration and Coffee
9:30 a.m. Welcome: Anne Krueger
(First Deputy Managing Director, IMF)
Session 1. Currency Crises, Inflation, and Credit
Chair: Eliana Cardoso (Georgetown University)
9:45 a.m. Ariel Burstein, Martin Eichenbaum and
Sergio Rebelo (Northwestern University)

"Why are Rates of Inflation so Low after Large Contractionary Devaluations?" (394kb pdf file)
Discussant: Ilan Goldfajn (PUC Rio and Banco
Central do Brasil)
  Adolfo Barajas (IMF) and
Roberto Steiner (Universidad de los Andes)

"Credit Stagnation in Latin America" (270kb pdf file)
Updated version" (1,605kb pdf file), published in IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 49, Special Issue
Discussant: Alejandro Werner (Banco de México)
11:45 a.m. Aaron Tornell (UCLA) and
Frank Westermann (University of Munich)

"Boom-Bust Cycles in Credit-Constrained Economies" (578kb pdf file) Updated version (1,475kb pdf file) published in IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 49, Special Issue
Discussant: Paolo Pesenti (Federal Reserve Bank of
New York)
Session 2. Currency Crises, Output, and Integration
Chair: Peter Kenen (Princeton University)
2:00 p.m. Poonam Gupta (IMF), Deepak Mishra (World Bank) and Ratna Sahay (IMF)
"Output Response to Currency Crises" (600kb pdf file)
Discussant: Nouriel Roubini (New York University)
  Kristin Forbes
"Cheap Labor Meets Costly Capital: the Impact of Devaluations on Commodity Firms" (243kb pdf file)
How do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance? (118 kb pdf file), published in IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 49, Special Issues
Discussant: Jingqing Chai (IMF)

Axel A. Weber and GŁnter Beck
(Frankfurt University)

"Economic Integration and the Exchange Rate Regime: How Damaging are Currency Crises?" (3,668kb pdf file)
Discussant: Charles Engel (University of Wisconsin)

4:45 p.m. Mundell-Fleming Lecture
Kenneth Rogoff (IMF)
"Dornbusch's Overshooting Model After 25 Years" (1,152kb pdf file), published in IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 49, Special Issue
Remarks by Rudi Dornbusch (13k pdf file)

Friday, November 30:
Stabilization Policies and Economic Reforms

Session 3. Stabilization Policies
Chair: Alexandre Swoboda
(Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva)
9:00 a.m. Marco Cangiano, E. Baldacci, S. Mahfouz, and
Axel Schimmelpfenning (IMF)

"The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity: An Empirical Investigation" (217kb pdf file)
Discussant: Alberto Alesina (Harvard University)
  Janine Aron and John Muellbauer
(Oxford University)

"Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa" (1,569kb pdf file), published in IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 49, Special Issue
Discussant: Eswar Prasad (IMF)
11:00 a.m. Javier Hamann and Alessandro Prati (IMF)
"Why Do Many Disinflations Fail?" (1,476kb pdf file)
Discussant: Holger Wolf (George Washington University)
  Robert Barro (Harvard University) and
Jong-Wha Lee (Korea University)

"IMF Programs: Who Is Chosen and What
Are the Effects?
" (109kb pdf file)
Discussant: Tim Lane (IMF)
Session 4. Political Economy of Economic Reforms
Chair: Federico Sturzenegger (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella)
2:00 p.m. Tito Cordella and Giovanni Dell'Ariccia (IMF)
"Budget Support versus Project Aid: A Theoretical Appraisal" (367kb pdf file)
Discussant: Craig Burnside (The World Bank)
  Stephanie Eble and Petya Koeva (IMF)
"What Determines Individual Preferences Over Reform? Microeconomic Evidence from Russia" (136kb pdf file), published in IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 49, Special Issue
Discussant: Anders Åslund (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
  Anna Ivanova (IMF), Wolfgang Mayer (University of Cincinatti), George Anayiotos, and Alexandros Mourmouras (IMF)
"What Explains the Success and Failure of
Fund-Supported Programs?
" (1,919kb pdf file)
Discussant: Patrick Conway (University of North Carolina)
4:45 p.m. The Political Economy of IMF Conditionality
Chair: Tim Geithner (IMF)

Allan Drazen (Tel-Aviv University)
"Conditionality and Ownership in IMF Lending: A Political Economy Approach" (1,139kb pdf file), published in IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 49, Special Issue
Discussants: Jeffry Frieden (Harvard University), and Mohsin Khan (IMF)

  Tito Cordella and Giovanni Dell'Ariccia (IMF)
"Limits of Conditionality in Poverty Reduction Programs" (707kb pdf), published in IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 49, Special Issue