IMF Executive Board Concludes 2021 Article IV Consultation and Sixth Review under the IMF’s Extended Arrangement for Barbados
December 16, 2021
- The Executive Board of the IMF concluded the sixth review of the IMF’s extended arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Barbados. The completion of the review allows the authorities to draw the equivalent of SDR 17 million (about US$[24] million).
- Despite the challenges posed for the economy by the pandemic and a series of natural disasters, Barbados has been steadily moving ahead with the implementation of the comprehensive Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) plan aimed at restoring fiscal sustainability, and increasing reserves, and unlocking growth potential through structural reforms.
Washington, DC : On December 15, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation [1] with Barbados. At the same meeting, the Board also completed the sixth review of Barbados’ economic reform program supported by an arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The completion of the review allows the authorities to draw the equivalent of SDR 17 million (about US$24 million), bringing total disbursements to the equivalent of SDR 305 million (about US$425 million).
The four-year extended arrangement under the EFF was approved on October 1, 2018 (see Press Release No. 18/370 ) and is for an amount equivalent of SDR 322 million (about US$465 million).
Barbados continues its strong implementation of the comprehensive Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) plan aimed at restoring fiscal sustainability, increasing reserves, and unlocking growth potential through structural reforms. The prolonged global coronavirus pandemic, along with the twin natural disaster shocks of volcanic ashfalls from neighboring St. Vincent in April and category 1 hurricane Elsa in July, poses a major challenge for the tourism-dependent economy. Reform efforts include enhancing adaptation measures towards increasing vulnerabilities emanating from climate change and natural disasters.
Following the Executive Board discussion, Mr. Bo Li, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, made the following statement:
The Barbadian authorities continue to make good progress in implementing their comprehensive Economic Recovery and Transformation plan, despite the challenges caused by the ongoing global pandemic and two recent natural disasters. Given that the outlook remains uncertain, the authorities need to maintain sound policies and their strong reform momentum to safeguard macroeconomic stability and boost potential growth.
A temporary relaxation of the primary balance target for fiscal year 2021/22 is appropriate given the lingering impact of the pandemic and unexpected spending needs to address the impact of Hurricane Elsa and ashfalls from nearby volcanic eruptions. The authorities will have to compensate this short-term fiscal accommodation with higher primary surpluses in the medium term to safeguard debt sustainability.
Medium-term fiscal adjustment will be supported by reforms to state-owned enterprises (SOEs). To create fiscal space for investment in physical and human capital, transfers to SOEs need to decline by strengthening oversight of SOEs, revenue enhancement, cost reduction, as well as mergers and divestment. The authorities’ plans to reform the pension system and introduce a fiscal rule will also support fiscal sustainability.
The authorities took an appropriate monetary and financial policy response to the pandemic. They plan to recapitalize the central bank gradually. Carefully unwinding pandemic-related credit support measures, as conditions allow, will be critical to contain financial sector risks. The Central Bank of Barbados plans to join the Network for Greening the Financial System and intends to gradually integrate climate change risks into its financial stability assessments. Going forward, the authorities should also work, in close cooperation with the Financial Action Task Force, to further strengthen the AML/CFT framework.
Medium-term growth prospects depend on accelerating structural reforms to improve the business climate, diversify the economy, and facilitate green and digital transformations. Strengthening resilience to natural disasters and climate change, combined with an accelerated transition to renewable energy, is key to achieve more sustainable economic growth and reduce vulnerability to international oil price volatility. In this regard, the authorities’ ambitious target of reaching 100 percent renewable energy by 2030 is commendable.
The Executive Board also concluded the 2021 Article IV consultation [2] with Barbados.
Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They commended the Barbadian authorities for their sustained good progress in implementing their ambitious economic reform program, despite the challenges brought by the global pandemic and two recent natural disasters. Given that the outlook remains uncertain, Directors called on the authorities to maintain their strong reform momentum to boost potential growth, while ensuring a timely transition to fiscal consolidation to preserve debt sustainability.
Directors noted that a temporary fiscal accommodation is needed given the lingering impact of the pandemic and unexpected spending brought by the natural disasters. To compensate for this temporary relaxation, Directors underscored that the authorities will have to deliver ambitious primary surpluses over the medium and long term to safeguard debt sustainability. They noted that the authorities are exploring, in close consultation with Fund staff, how best to use the recent SDR allocation to support key economic objectives.
Directors emphasized that medium-term fiscal consolidation should be supported by reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). They supported the authorities’ plans to reduce transfers to SOEs with a combination of stronger oversight, revenue enhancement, cost reduction, as well as mergers and divestment. Directors also stressed the need to support fiscal sustainability through pension reform and the introduction of a fiscal rule. They encouraged the authorities to assess the impact on fiscal revenues of the recent global agreement on corporate taxation.
Directors emphasized that medium-term growth hinges on structural reforms that improve the business climate, diversify the economy, and facilitate green and digital transformations. They recommended strengthening resilience to natural disasters and climate change , combined with an accelerated transition to renewable energy, to achieve more sustainable growth. In this context, Directors commended the authorities’ ambitious target of reaching 100 percent renewable energy by 2030.
It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Barbados will be held in accordance with the Executive Board decision on consultation cycles for members with Fund arrangements.
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I. Social and Demographic Indicators |
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Population (2020 est., thousand) |
287.9 |
Adult literacy rate (2014) |
99.6 |
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Per capita GDP (2020 est., US$ thousand) |
15.6 |
Poverty rate (individual, 2010) |
19.3 |
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Life expectancy at birth in years (2019) |
79.2 |
Gini coefficient (2010) |
47.0 |
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Rank in UNDP Development Index (2019) |
58 |
Unemployment rate (2019 est.) |
10.7 |
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Main products, services and exports: tourism, financial services, rum, sugar, and chemicals. |
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II. Economic Indicators |
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Est. |
Projections |
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|
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2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
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(Annual percentage change) |
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Output, prices, and employment |
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CY Real GDP |
-0.6 |
-1.3 |
-18.0 |
1.6 |
10.1 |
|
CPI inflation (average) |
3.7 |
4.1 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
5.4 |
|
CPI inflation (end of period) |
0.6 |
7.2 |
1.3 |
4.7 |
2.7 |
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External sector |
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Exports of goods and services |
-0.1 |
7.9 |
-39.2 |
30.0 |
19.4 |
|
Imports of goods and services |
-0.4 |
3.9 |
-18.1 |
21.0 |
12.2 |
|
Real effective exchange rate (average) |
121.1 |
127.6 |
… |
… |
… |
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Money and credit |
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Net domestic assets |
4.1 |
0.0 |
5.0 |
6.0 |
2.4 |
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Of which: Private sector credit |
0.3 |
1.0 |
-1.2 |
-0.2 |
1.4 |
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Broad money |
-0.2 |
3.0 |
7.3 |
10.3 |
0.2 |
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(In percent of FY GDP) |
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CG Public finances (fiscal year) 1/ |
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Revenue and grants |
29.1 |
31.0 |
31.8 |
29.0 |
29.1 |
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Expenditure |
29.4 |
27.2 |
36.9 |
34.1 |
30.8 |
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Fiscal Balance |
-0.3 |
3.8 |
-5.1 |
-5.1 |
-1.7 |
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Interest Expenditure |
3.7 |
2.5 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
4.7 |
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Primary Balance |
3.4 |
6.2 |
-1.0 |
-1.0 |
3.0 |
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Public Debt (fiscal year) 1/ |
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Central gov't gross debt /2 |
126.0 |
124.4 |
156.4 |
142.1 |
128.7 |
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External |
33.4 |
33.8 |
52.0 |
50.3 |
47.1 |
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Domestic |
92.5 |
90.5 |
104.5 |
91.8 |
81.6 |
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Balance of payments (calendar year) |
(In percent of CY GDP) |
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Current account balance |
-4.0 |
-3.1 |
-7.2 |
-10.8 |
-8.8 |
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Capital and financial account balance |
9.4 |
7.4 |
18.5 |
12.2 |
6.6 |
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Public Sector |
4.8 |
3.7 |
11.0 |
7.7 |
1.7 |
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o/w IMF disbursement |
1.0 |
1.9 |
5.1 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
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Private Sector |
4.1 |
3.8 |
7.6 |
4.6 |
4.9 |
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o/w FDI |
4.4 |
4.6 |
8.5 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
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Net Errors and Omissions |
0.2 |
0.2 |
1.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
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Overall balance |
5.7 |
4.5 |
13.2 |
1.4 |
-2.2 |
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Memorandum items: |
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Exchange rate (BDS$/US$) |
2.0 |
2.0 |
… |
… |
… |
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Gross international reserves (US$ million) |
499.6 |
738.9 |
1,330.3 |
1,394.2 |
1,278.5 |
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In months of imports of G&S |
3.0 |
4.2 |
9.3 |
8.0 |
6.6 |
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In percent of ARA |
100.5 |
141.9 |
260.0 |
242.6 |
208.5 |
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Nominal GDP, CY (BDS$ millions) |
10,173 |
10,596 |
8,975 |
9,374 |
10,485 |
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Nominal GDP, FY (BDS$ millions) |
10,279 |
10,191 |
8,494 |
9,733 |
10,725 |
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Sources: Barbados authorities; UNDP Human Development
Report; Barbados Country Assessment of Living Conditions
2010 (December 2012); and Fund staff estimates and
projections.
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[1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.
[2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://0-www-IMF-org.library.svsu.edu/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm .
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